Investigating Climate Variability And Its Impact On Livestock Production Across Nigeria

ABSTRACT

This study aim at investigating climate variability and its impact on livestock production across Nigeria. Observational data of monthly rainfall was obtained for a period of 42 years (1979 to 2021) from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET). The yearly animal production data was also obtained for a period of 10 years (2013 to 2022) from Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Natural resources. The data obtained was subjected to descriptive statistical analysis (mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation) to show spread and variability; linear regression to show trend (changes with time); coefficient of correlation to show statistical relationship between the variables (rainfall and each of the animal production); revealing insights into changing precipitation patterns. Positive and negative correlations were identified, indicating how changes in rainfall influenced livestock output. And the significance of these correlations was determined through t-tests, shedding light on the strength of the relationship between rainfall and livestock production.

 CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

• Background

The global livestock sector is growing faster than any other agricultural sector. It is currently the single largest anthropogenic user of land, and the source of many
environmental problems, including global warming and climate change (Crespo et al., 2011). The switch in food consumption pattern from traditional cereals and root crops to wheat based processed foods, high protein and animal products has accentuated the demand for more livestock (Lloret et al., 2012).

The global meat and milk production is expected to be more than double in the next half century. Barnet et al. (2008) report showed that livestock contributes 37% of methane emission, 9% of carbon-dioxide output and utilizes 8% of the world water.ccording to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, animal production is presently responsible for 18% of all human-induced greenhouse gas emissions (Hurkman et al., 2009). The threat that climate change pose to agricultural production does not only cover the area of crop husbandry but also includes livestock and in fact the total agricultural sector (Tall et al., 2012).

African farmers also depend on livestock for income, food and animal products. Climate can affect livestock both directly and indirectly. Direct effects of climate variables such as air, temperature, humidity, wind speed and other climate factors influence animal performance such as growth, milk production, wool production and reproduction (Haines et al., 2006). Climate can also affect the quantity and quality of feedstuffs such as pasture, forage, and grain and the severity and distribution of livestock diseases and parasite. Hence, the totality of agricultural sector is considered by examining agricultural productivity (Zillock et al., 2015). The nation’s natural and agricultural ecosystems, including freshwater and coastal resources, are highly susceptible to the effects of climate change (Ncube et al., 2012).

• Statement of Research Problem

Climate change is the most severe problem that the world is facing today. It has been identified that it is a more serious threat than global terrorism (Rao et al., 2011). Climate change affects food and water resources that are critical for livelihood in Africa where much of the population rely on local supply system that are sensitive to climate variability (Porter and Semenov, 2005). Rainfall is by far the most important element of climate change in Nigeria andwater resources potential (Weaver et al., 2013). Agriculture in Nigeria is mostly rain-fed, it follows therefore that any change in climate is bound to influence agricultural productivity and livestock production in particular and other socio-economic activities. The issue of climate change has become more threatening not only to the sustainable development of socio-economic and agricultural activities of any nation but also to the totality of human existence (Ncube et al., 2012). This work will help to resolve the effect of climate variability on livestock production across Nigeria.

• Significance of the Study

It is worth noting that numerous empirical studies on different aspects of livestock production in Nigeria have been carried out (Hellin et al., 2012). Despite the myriads of research in livestock, there exists a gap in livestock research with respect to livestock production and climate change nexus in Nigeria. The global trend in climate variability has necessitated this study to gain insight into the relationship between livestock production and climate variability in Nigeria (Thornton et al., 2011).

• Aim and Objectives
  • Aim

This study aim at investigating climate variability and its impact on livestock production across Nigeria.

• Objectives

The objectives of this study are,

1. To examine the trend in livestock production in Nigeria.
2. To investigate the trend and variability of rainfall across Nigeria from 1979 to 2021.
3. To analyze the link between rainfall variability and livestock
   production in Nigeria.
   • Climate change, climate variability and extreme events

Climate change is inevitably resulting in changes in climate variability and in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of extreme weather and climate events (Weaver et al., 2013). Climate variability already has substantial impacts on biological systems and on the smallholders, communities and countries which depend on them (Challinor et al., 2013). Changes in extremes have been observed since 1950, and some of these changes are a result of anthropogenic influences (Hurkman et al., 2009).

1.6.         Nigeria’s rainfall variability

The most important systems responsible for Nigeria’s rainfall include: the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), subtropical anticyclones and monsoonal winds (Costello et al., 2009). According to Dai (2011), local influences such as large water masses, human activities, topography and other surface features also play a role in the climate experienced in the country.

Previous studies provide some evidence that a bimodal rainfall regime dominates the south of Nigeria, while a unimodal distribution is more apparent above 3° North (Zillock et al., 2015).

Nigeria experiences varied rainfall, with some areas receiving heavy rains, which in some instances have resulted in property destruction, while other areas have experienced drought. In some seasons, there is early onset of the rain and late cessation while in other cases there is early onset of the rain and it stops when it is still expected to continue (Costello et al., 2009).

The variability in distribution of rainfall arises from a series of interactions. Inter-annual variability of ainfall with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific through atmospheric teleconnections and the ENSO phenomenon (Barnet et al., 2008).

1.7.    Livestock production and systems evolution

Human population in 2050 is estimated to be 9.15 billion, with a range of 7.96–10.46 billion (Dai, 2011). Most of the increase is projected to take place in developing countries (Hellin et al., 2012). East Asia will have shifted to negative population growth by the late 2040s (Lobell et al., 2011). In contrast, population in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will still be growing at 1.2 per cent per year (Jones and Thornton, 2013). Rapid population growth could continue to be an important impediment to achieving improvements in food security in some countries, even when world population as a whole ceases growing sometime during the present century (Brown et al., 2012). Another important factor that determines the demand for food is urbanization (Codjoe and Owusu, 2011). As of the end of 2008, more people now live in urban settings than in rural areas, with urbanization rates varying from less than 30 per cent in South Asia to near 80 per cent in developed countries and Latin America, this is also applicable to African countries including Nigeria (Challinor et al., 2013). Urbanization has considerable impact on patterns of food consumption in general and on demand for livestock products in particular, urbanization often stimulates improvements in infrastructure, including cold chains, and this allows perishable goods to be traded more widely (Mohammed and Tarpley, 2009). Another driver leading to increased demand for livestock products is income growth. As income grows, so does expenditure on livestock products. Growth in industrialized countries is projected to be slower than that in developing economies (Vermeulen et al., 2013).

Livestock production response has been characterized by systems’ as well as regional differences. Confined livestock production systems in industrialized countries are the source of much of the world’s poultry and pig meat production, and such systems are being established in developing countries, particularly in Asia, to meet increasing demand (Ericksen, 2008).

Domestication and the use of conventional livestock breeding techniques have been largely responsible for the increases in yield of livestock products that have been observed over recent decades (Cory et al., 2013). At the same time, considerable changes in the composition of livestock products have occurred (Rao et al., 2011).

The nutritional needs of farm animals with respect to energy, protein, minerals and vitamins have long been known, and these have been refined in recent decades (Haines et al., 2006). Different countries have their different requirement determination systems for ruminants and non-ruminants, which were originally designed to assess the nutritional and productive consequences of different feeds for the animal once intake was known (Crespo et al., 2011; Weaver et al., 2013).

Animal diseases generate a wide range of biophysical and socio-economic impacts that may be both direct and indirect, and may vary from localized to global (Dai, 2011; Rao et al., 2011). Due to the complexity of the effects of diseases, their economic impacts are increasingly difficult to quantify, largely, but they may be enormous (Thornton et al., 2011). The last few decades have seen a general reduction in the burden of livestock diseases, as a result of more effective drugs and vaccines and improvements in diagnostic technologies and services (Ahmed et al., 2011).

Pages:  43

Category: Project

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Chapters: 1-5                                          

Source: Imsuinfo

Material contains Table of Content, Abstract and References.